Ign'int question

I've an ignorant question for you. Please pardon the caps.

WHEN THE FUCK DO THEY FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION? How long is this shit going to drag out?!

All annoyances aside, I'm not asking this rhetorically. I'm genuinely curious of when this process ends. I'm naive and don't know how this works, and I guess I just never remembered it taking this long. Granted, there usually isn't two candidates this close in the polls in on party, but still. Is it just because neither Hillary or Barack have conceded, so this goes till the bitter (never)end?

 It could go all the way until the convention, unless one either gets a substantal lead or one drops.

I would predict that if Obama wins these next few states Clinton will drop,

Toodles:

I would predict that if Obama wins these next few states Clinton will drop,

 

I predict that Clinton will never drop out... she will wait until the convention and Barack wins the nomination.  Until then she'll just do her best to ensure we elect McCain so her loser ass can come back in 6 months and whine about how we should have picked her.  Then she'll wander back to her castle in la-la land and talk about how everyone else besides her has lost touch with the "working" man.

 

 The process goes on until:

all candidates except for one drops out

or

One candidate reaches the magical number of delegates that assures them the nomination (For dems...I think it is a little more than 2000 needed)

or

the convention happens.  This is where....if neither candidate wins the magic number of needed delegates...the "super delegates" actually cast the final deciding votes.  This is where it can get interesting as the supers are not bound by anything. 

 

...whichever of those events happens first...will be what ends the nomination process.

 

 

For the Republicans...it technically ended when McCain reached the magical delegate number.  That is when the Huckster dropped out.  however...it was over long before that as the numbers were such that Huck had no chance of even coming close to overtaking McCain's delegate count.  He stayed in it...most likely to up his chances at a VP nom.

 

not so new and slightly abused user:

Toodles:

I would predict that if Obama wins these next few states Clinton will drop,

 

I predict that Clinton will never drop out... she will wait until the convention and Barack wins the nomination.  Until then she'll just do her best to ensure we elect McCain so her loser ass can come back in 6 months and whine about how we should have picked her.  Then she'll wander back to her castle in la-la land and talk about how everyone else besides her has lost touch with the "working" man.

 

 

 Okay, I like your prediction better.  I take mine back.

Maybe she will drop but not before she "attacks" Obama on all possible dirty laundry.  Thus making it old news and leaving the McCain campaign without anything to use against him.

 By what date do the Independents have to announce their candidacy?

Slate had a thing recently that I'm too lazy to find again that pretty much laid out the numbers and Hillary's got about a 12% chance still if the stars magically align and every Superdelegate jumps ship and unicorns start farting rainbows and there isn't a general revolt over her hijack of the process. She's stil pushing to get Michigan and Florida seated. However, I don't see that happening especially since Obama wasn't even on the Michigan ballot...

She does look likely to at least make a stab at Nadering this election right good though.

Scobbs:

the convention happens.  This is where....if neither candidate wins the magic number of needed delegates...the "super delegates" actually cast the final deciding votes.  This is where it can get interesting as the supers are not bound by anything.

 

 

Most "pledged" delegates are not bound to their pledges, either.  I believe it varies by state.  And technically, I think they caucus and vote until someone gets the needed number.  I know that way back in the day, conventions would go through multiple votes.

 I thought Howard Dean announced that they were going to account for michigan and Florida??????????

By defying party rules and having their primary dates ahead of Super Tuesday, Michigan and Florida both lose their chance to play ball. Sorry, you broke the rules, F off. Plus, both candidates claimed they wouldn't campaign in those states, and Obama wasn't even on the ticket in Michigan. Clinton did not object last year when the DNC agreed to strip the delegates from them since they had broke party rules. But now that she has no chance without them, she wants them counted. Surprise another lie from a Clinton. I can't wait for this crap to be over.

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/feb/15/clinton-will-have-get-around-dnc-seat-michigan-and/

Ok, I've got time to kill

Here's the Slate article

 

What I don't quite understand here is that she's a longshot still. I mean, her nomination is a real no joke no real chance longshot. I can understand the desire and the ambition part of the hopeless quest, but I don't get how she misses the political repercussions of her dragging this thing this far. It doesn't take a TV Pundit to realize that she's earning herself a lot of political bad blood here which will likely come back to haunt her in 2012 should she try again to wrest the nomination from Obama at the end of his first term.

She may as well just join forces with Ralph Nader now and establish the Meglomaniac Spoiler Party now for all the good this is going to do her.

 

 Like I said, maybe the democrats want to make sure that one of their own is responsible for dragging Obama through the mud first so when he takes on McCain, everything the republicans can come up with will no longer be HOT news and no one in the media will follow it.

Let Clinton beat the dead horse.